Preview of Celtics Backcourt Rotation
On April 17th, Celtics fans let out a collective sigh of relief. It was finally over. Twenty-five wins and a dismal fifty-seven losses later, the NBA regular season came to an end and C’s fans could sit back, watch the playoffs, and await the highly anticipated 2013-14 offseason. Boston had a potential top 10 pick, the (16th?) pick and some big name free agents on the market such as; LeBron, Melo, and Kevin Love. We ended up with the sixth overall pick where we selected Marcus Smart, who is essentially a bigger version of Avery Bradley. Many thought this meant the end of either Avery or Rondo, however when the Celtics resigned Bradley to a four year, $32 million contract fans were left scratching their heads. Trade rumors involving Boston’s All-Star point guard, Rajon Rondo, began circulating but none have developed yet. Now with the NBA season rapidly approaching, the big name free agents have all found homes, the Celtics still have Bradley, Smart and Rondo on their current roster, and fans are haunted by the thought of another abysmal season. However, both Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens have been quoted saying they believe the three guards can not only coexist, but can also thrive in the same backcourt. When asked whether Rondo, Smart, and Bradley could black in the same backcourt Ainge replied; “Absolutely. No question. And [Smart] and Avery. No question. He’s a very versatile player. Easily those guys can play together, and I think they would really thrive playing together, all of them” (ESPN). Even Brad Stevens agreed, adding, “I don’t think there’s any doubt. I think [Smart and Rondo] can play together” (ESPN). Ainge has said he envisions a backcourt in which all three guards will rotate between the point guard and shooting guard position, and I assume Thornton and Pressey could see some minutes here and there as well. All three guards are excellent defenders and can wreak havoc when getting out in transition, but they are all sub-par shooters which could be the only problem with this trio. Only time will tell, but I took a deeper look into this trio to try to decide who will show up all season; a three-headed monster or an offensive nightmare?
Rajon Rondo
I began by looking at the veteran of the group; incumbent point guard, Rajon Rondo. The main concern with Rondo coming into this season is his health. After tearing his ACL in the 2009-2010 season, Rondo was eased back into the lineup last season and averaged 33 minutes per game through only 30 games. Rondo looked rusty at times to say the least, but towards the end of the season Rondo could be seen playing close to 40 minutes in some games while posting numbers similar to his career averages. After being healthy through the entire off season, one would expect Rondo to return to his normal self this season so that’s a plus. Even though Rondo isn’t surrounded by scorers like he once was during the days of KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce, he may actually be in a better situation this upcoming season. For the first time in his 8 year career, Rajon has a young team that should look to run at any given opportunity. With the exception of Joel Anthony and Keith bogans, who never play, the Celtics roster has one player, Gerald Wallace, who is over 30. When Rondo began his career with the Celtics, the “Big Three” could still get out in transition and run with Rondo, however towards the end of their four year journey together it looked as though the “Big Three” were holding Rondo back. Coming into this season, Rondo has the keys to the franchise during his contract season, with a good core of young players (Bradley, Smart, Sully, Green, Olynyk, Zeller) to run with him. Unfortunately the Celtics won’t be on National Television a whole lot this year, which usually means less of “National TV Rondo,” however you can expect him to play as if the entire world is watching all season as he tries to prove his worth heading into free agency at the end of the year. Rondo is still a walking triple-double, one of the best passers in the NBA, and he is playing for a new contract; expect BIG things from him this season and if I were a betting man, I’d bet he’s back in Celtics green next season.
Avery Bradley
Next we look at the presumed starter at the shooting guard position, Avery Bradley, a fourth year combo guard who just inked a four year $32 million extension at the beginning of July. During Rondo’s absence, Bradley took over as point guard and also played at his true position, shooting guard. Bradley is a defensive two guard and a streaky jump shooter at best, although his shooting has improved greatly since he came into the league. He is probably the best shooter out of the three, which isn’t saying much. Last year in an expanded role Avery shot 44% while increasing his shot attempts per game by 4 shots and his points per game by 6 points.
With Rondo back, Bradley will be able to move back to the shooting guard position which is really where he belongs. Both Rondo and Bradley have been plagued with injuries in recent years, however when they are on the court together, they really complement each other well. “I think it can be very good, not just on the offensive end but on the defensive end as well,” Bradley said of his chemistry with Rondo. “We play off each other on defense. When I’m tired of pressuring somebody, pretty soon Rondo is going to be able to pick them up full-court. That’s just how we play” (Boston Globe). Even though Bradley and Rondo’s time together on the floor was limited last season, Stevens was able to see the chemistry between the two; “It’s something that takes a little bit of time to get the feel of how they play best together, but I do think they can be a heck of a combination. And I do think they really like playing together, so I think it’s really good for them to now get a chance to do it” (Boston Globe). Their chemistry can even be seen when comparing the team’s stats with just Rondo on the court to the stats when they are both on the court. With both players on the court rebound rates climb upwards while turnover rates drop significantly. Similarly, with Bradley on the floor, Rondo’s plus/minus is plus 1 but without him Rondo has a rating of minus 96 according to ESPN’s Chris Forsberg.
Both players have improved their mid-range jump shots, especially when coming off screens, they can handle the ball if necessary, and each of them can lock up their man on defense. However, at times Rondo has a tendency to float around and be a pest on defense, so it is nice to have a lock down guy like Avery up top with him while he freelances. An even more intriguing defensive combo that has yet to be seen would be Smart at the point and Avery at shooting guard. Smart is a bigger and better defender than Rondo, and if Stevens implements a rotation at the guard positions that mainly consists of combinations of Smart, Rondo, and Bradley, this is a tandem we could see a lot of. It’s also a tandem that has the potential to be the best defensive backcourt in the NBA.
Marcus Smart
Finally we look at the newest addition to Boston’s backcourt, Marcus Smart. Smart is a 6’4” 220 pound running ba- I mean point guard, with the ability to play as a shooting guard as well. For the most part he lacks a jump shot; he only shot 42% from the field last year and 30% from behind the arc, but that won’t stop him from shooting. Smart is fearless when attacking the basket and adept at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line where he shot 72% last season at Oklahoma State. He’s an elite defender and he was able to showcase his defensive abilities against some of the best guards in the league during Team USA practices this summer. This means you won’t lose any defensive intensity if he subs in for Avery and you actually gain defensive intensity if he comes in for Rondo. The only question will be, how successful will he be as the floor general when Rondo is not on the court. Smart is a Lance Stephenson-like player in the sense that he is a “stat line stuffer,” he’ll scrap for boards, he’ll get steals and blocks on the defensive end, and he will pass the ball and make plays on offense. Aside from his game on the court, Smart brings an NBA ready body and a passion for the game that can’t be taught. Smart is a competitor to the highest degree, and he will do anything within his power to get a win.
Conclusion
Like Danny, I envision Rondo and Bradley starting with Smart coming off the bench as a sixth man. As the season goes on I believe Smart, Rondo, and Bradley will all get somewhere around 25-32 minutes per game apiece. Preferably Smart would sub out Avery, then after some time Avery would come in for Rondo, and so on. If this is the case, I see Boston having one of the best backcourts in the NBA. They won’t rank amongst the top offensively; however it’s going to be very difficult for opposing guards to score, even without a true rim protector in the paint behind them. If these guys can create turnovers and get out in transition, watch out because they will be tough to stop.
The Rest
Outside of these three players, the Celtics have some question marks at the guard positions. Newly acquired Marcus Thornton should see some minutes as a shooting guard due to the fact that he is the only guard on the Celtics roster that can actually shoot. This is assuming he stays with the team past the trade deadline, which with “Trader Danny” as your GM is never a guarantee. Ainge says he believes there will be some time for Phil Pressey to get into the game, but I don’t see where those minutes come from. With a log jam at the small forward position as well, I’m interested to see where Evan Turner and James Young are used. I was actually very happy when the Celtics selected Young, unfortunately I just don’t see where he fits this year. As a small forward, Young would be on the smaller side defensively; however I think he could hold his own on offense. In my opinion he’s really better suited as a scoring two guard, but with Avery, Smart, and Thornton ahead of him it will be tough to find minutes there. Young is only 18 so it wouldn’t kill him to spend a season on the bench learning from the guys ahead of him, but if Wallace, Green, or Thornton are moved before the trade deadline, I assume Young would play.
Sources
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/tag/_/name/avery-bradley
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4713558/cs-confident-smart-rondo-can-coexist